Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- With a fantastic 35.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (80th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin ranks among the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
Cons
- The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Tyler Conklin has totaled far fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).
- The New York offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
