NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 243.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football versus the Vikings defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- With a lackluster 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target (25th percentile) this year, Derek Carr ranks as one of the least effective QBs in the NFL.
- This year, the fierce Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a meager 7.4 yards.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
