Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-107/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-107) after it opened @ 69.5 (-103).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Brett Rypien in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- A throwing game script is indicated by the Rams being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
- The Rams have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.9 plays per game.
- Cooper Kupp has run a route on 99.3% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the feeble Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for a whopping 72.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Rams are forecasted by the projection model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Cooper Kupp has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (84.0).
- Cooper Kupp’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 76.4% to 56.9%.
- Cooper Kupp’s 5.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a noteworthy drop-off in his efficiency in space over last year’s 6.9% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
