Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Browns vs. Cardinals
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 66.1 plays per game.
- In this game, David Njoku is expected by the projections to land in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.
- The Browns O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- David Njoku’s ability to generate extra yardage has been refined this season, accumulating 8.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 5.22 mark last season.
- As it relates to defensive tackles getting after the quarterback, Arizona’s collection of DTs has been awful this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Browns, who are heavily favored by 13.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
- David Njoku has put up far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
