Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-113).

Pros

The Packers rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to accrue 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
With a top-tier 13.8% Target Share (82nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
As it relates to air yards, Luke Musgrave ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among tight ends this year, accruing an astounding 28.0 per game.
This year, the feeble Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a whopping 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the worst in the NFL.

Cons

A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards