Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Chargers
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-121) after it opened @ 215.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
- Zach Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 60.3%.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
- In this game, Zach Wilson is expected by our trusted projection set to have the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.2.
- In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
- Zach Wilson has been one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
