Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-121) after it opened @ 215.5 (-117).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
Zach Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 60.3%.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
In this game, Zach Wilson is expected by our trusted projection set to have the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.2.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
Zach Wilson has been one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards