Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Raiders vs. Giants
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-137) after it opened @ 75.5 (-117).
Pros
- At the present time, the 6th-most run-focused team in the league (41.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Raiders.
- The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.1 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been given 79.4% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year.
- The Giants defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 52.9 per game on average).
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- Josh Jacobs has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s 3.2 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a substantial decline in his rushing skills over last season’s 5.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
