Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- After making up 19.1% of his offense’s carries last year, James Cook has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now sitting at 52.3%.
- James Cook’s 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a substantial gain in his running prowess over last year’s 32.0 figure.
- This year, the formidable Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a feeble 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 29th-smallest rate in football.
- The Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to run on 36.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the effect it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
- James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year marks a noteworthy reduction in his running ability over last year’s 5.8 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
