Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

In this game, Joe Mixon is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among running backs with 16.8 rush attempts.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this year (81.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
Joe Mixon has grinded out 64.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (87th percentile).
This year, the strong Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-best rate in the NFL.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.0% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
In regards to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.
The Bills linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards