Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this game, Joe Mixon is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among running backs with 16.8 rush attempts.
- Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this year (81.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 64.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (87th percentile).
- This year, the strong Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-best rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.0% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
- In regards to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.
- The Bills linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
