Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 89.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 11.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 127.0 per game.
- Stefon Diggs’s 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 65.9.
- The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.3 per game) this year.
- Stefon Diggs’s 2.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a material decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 4.1% rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) vs. wideouts this year (60.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards
102
Receiving Yards
