Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
The projections expect Ja’Marr Chase to garner 12.7 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Ja’Marr Chase has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this year (33.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.1%).
When talking about air yards, Ja’Marr Chase ranks in the towering 89th percentile among WRs this year, accumulating a staggering 96.0 per game.

Cons

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
Ja’Marr Chase’s 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects an impressive regression in his efficiency in the open field over last year’s 6.6% rate.
This year, the imposing Bills pass defense has allowed the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a meager 3.0 YAC.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Receiving Yards