Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 15.5 (-120).

Pros

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
Irv Smith Jr. has gone out for fewer passes this season (68.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.6%).

Cons

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
Irv Smith Jr. has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).
Irv Smith Jr.’s 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 25.0 mark.
Irv Smith Jr.’s 68.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 73.2% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards