Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is expected by the projections to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.9.
This year, the shaky Texans defense has allowed a staggering 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-worst rate in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
With a subpar 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target (19th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield stands as one of the least effective passers in the NFL.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards