Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- In this contest, Baker Mayfield is expected by the projections to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.9.
- This year, the shaky Texans defense has allowed a staggering 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-worst rate in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
- With a subpar 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target (19th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield stands as one of the least effective passers in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
