Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+114/-146).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-146) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 3.9% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
- Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to accumulate 14.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Rachaad White has been a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this year (55.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.7%).
- Rachaad White’s 43.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a noteable progression in his rushing skills over last year’s 30.0 rate.
Cons
- The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year.
- The Houston Texans defense has produced the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.57 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
