Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.5 targets.
After accumulating 65.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted big gains this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Raiders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 33.4 per game) this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, totaling just 4.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.59 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards