Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Brandon Aiyuk to accrue 8.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- After accruing 69.0 air yards per game last season, Brandon Aiyuk has shown good development this season, now boasting 100.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily featured in his offense’s pass attack.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 85.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a material progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 63.0 mark.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 72.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a substantial gain in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 68.9% rate.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have only 120.9 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
