Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-105/-125).

Pros

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Irv Smith Jr.’s 68.4% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a significant improvement in his pass attack volume over last season’s 55.6% figure.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Irv Smith Jr.’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.2% to 55.9%.
Irv Smith Jr.’s 2.9 adjusted yards per target this year marks a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 5.8 rate.
With a feeble 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. rates among the best pass-game TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a measly 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards