Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- George Kittle has run a route on 86.6% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- This week, George Kittle is projected by the projections to rank in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 5.7 targets.
- When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging an impressive 43.0 per game.
- With a fantastic 9.6 adjusted yards per target (96th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.4%) versus tight ends this year (79.4%).
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have only 120.9 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
