Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (+108/-141).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (+108) after it opened @ 242.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
- Dak Prescott’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 69.4%.
- The Rams linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 56.9% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 211.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- This year, the daunting Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a meager 63.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
