Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Matthew Stafford to throw 37.5 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
The Los Angeles O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford’s 58.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys an impressive diminishment in his passing accuracy over last season’s 65.3% rate.
This year, the stout Cowboys defense has given up a paltry 193.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards