Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Giants vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
- Our trusted projections expect Tyler Conklin to notch 4.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- In regards to air yards, Tyler Conklin grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a colossal 32.0 per game.
- Tyler Conklin’s 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 85th percentile for tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin comes in as one of the top TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 35.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 56.0% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 52.0 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
