Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 5th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Texans to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- This year, the strong Carolina Panthers run defense has yielded a mere 6.01 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 32nd-best rate in football.
Cons
- After comprising 77.3% of his offense’s rush attempts last season, Dameon Pierce has been less involved in the run game this season, currently comprising only 63.1%.
- As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
- Dameon Pierce has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- Dameon Pierce’s 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his running ability over last season’s 4.2 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
