Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Steelers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Najee Harris is projected by the projections to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.4 carries.
- Out of all running backs, Najee Harris ranks in the 90th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 60.6% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in run defense, Jacksonville’s unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- The Steelers have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
- Najee Harris has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
- Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.56 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile among RBs).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 85.0 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
