Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 266.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.6% pass rate.
- At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Chargers.
- Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
- The Bears defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
- With an impressive record of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (86th percentile), Justin Herbert places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers offensive approach to skew 2.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
