Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Titans vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, Kyle Pitts is expected by the model to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
- With a remarkable 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (87th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts rates among the best pass-game TEs in football.
- Kyle Pitts’s 58.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial progression in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 49.3% rate.
- This year, the poor Titans pass defense has given up a staggering 78.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The projections expect the Falcons to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Kyle Pitts has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (77.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been used much less in his offense’s passing offense.
- Kyle Pitts’s talent in generating extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a measly 2.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
