Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

In this contest, Raheem Mostert is expected by the model to position himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.3 rush attempts.
Out of all RBs, Raheem Mostert ranks in the 85th percentile for carries this year, making up 52.4% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
The Miami O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football last year in run-blocking.
Raheem Mostert has run for many more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Raheem Mostert’s ground efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 6.00 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.77 figure last year.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to run on 38.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 65.0 per game) vs. the Eagles defense this year.
The Philadelphia defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards