Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian WatsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Packers
Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-125) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers.
- Christian Watson has posted a massive 72.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.5%) versus wide receivers this year (77.5%).
- The Broncos pass defense has shown poor efficiency against wide receivers this year, conceding 9.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.
Cons
- The model projects the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 52.2 per game on average).
- Christian Watson’s 43.3% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 65.3% mark.
- Christian Watson’s 6.7 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a a substantial reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 9.3 rate.
- With a weak 0.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (8th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson stands as one of the best WRs in the game in the NFL in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
