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Chris Meaney
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 8.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 8.5 (-110) after it opened @ 8.5 (-105).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The the Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Austin Hooper’s possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 75.6% to 85.7%.
Cons
- The Raiders have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.0 plays per game.
- Austin Hooper has been a less important option in his offense’s passing game this season (4.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.5%).
- Austin Hooper has accrued far fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
- Austin Hooper has notched quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
- Since the start of last season, the formidable New England Patriots defense has surrendered a mere 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
