Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 27.5% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
With an exceptional 83.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (93rd percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.8%) to wideouts this year (61.8%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay’s group of LBs has been great this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards