Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The No. 10 USC Trojans (6-0) will look to stay undefeated when they head to South Bend to play the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Last season, the Trojans defeated the Fighting Irish 38-27 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Caleb Williams had another Heisman moment for USC as he had 267 total yards (18/22 for 232 passing yards) and four total touchdowns (three rushing scores). USC also received a fantastic performance from running back Austin Jones, who had a game-high 154 yards on 25 carries.
USC hopes Williams and the defense can rise to the occasion on the road despite not playing their best football over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Sam Hartman and Notre Dame will try to get their season back on track after a 33-20 road loss to Louisville last week.
The Fighting Irish are 2-1 at home this season, with their only loss coming against Ohio State on Sept. 23. Notre Dame is a 2.5-point favorite over USC, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below we’ll break down this nonconference rivalry, which could impact the College Football Playoff and provide bettors with our best bet.
USC vs. Notre Dame
Spread: USC +2.5 (-105); Notre Dame -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: USC +120; Notre Dame -142
Total: Over 60 (-110); Under 60 (-110)
It doesn’t come as a surprise to see the Fighting Irish as short home favorites for Saturday night’s matchup, especially with the Trojans’ recent struggles. As noted earlier, USC is undefeated at 6-0, but they’ve struggled in their last three Pac-12 conference games against Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona State.
The Trojans defeated those teams by an average of 7.6 points, which is puzzling as they’ve scored 40 or more points in each game. However, the offense hasn’t been a problem for USC this season. Instead, it’s been their defense. Last season, the Trojans’ defense gave up a ton of points (29.2), and that trend has continued into the 2023 season (27 points per game allowed).
In last week’s triple-overtime win over Arizona, Alex Grinch’s defense gave up big plays to freshman quarterback Noah Fifita, who completed 71.4% of his passes for 303 yards, five touchdowns and an interception. The Trojans also allowed the Wildcats to run for 203 yards, which isn’t anywhere near a championship-level defense.
USC’s defense has allowed 264.3 passing yards and 157 rushing yards per game this season. If you are betting on Trojans, these aren’t the numbers you want to see. However, if you are betting on the Irish, this could be a nice bounceback spot for Sam Hartman and Co.
Hartman had one of his worst games wearing a Notre Dame uniform last week, as Louisville’s defense pressured him all night. The former Wake Forest standout completed 57.9% of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions. The last time Hartman threw three interceptions in a game was in 2022 against North Carolina State. He was also sacked four times in that 11-point road loss.
For the Irish to get back on track, they must do better at protecting Hartman. The Trojans have recorded 22 sacks this season, good for fourth in the country. If Notre Dame’s offensive line can bounce back, Hartman should have an easier time in the pocket, along with junior running back Audric Estime.
Estime also struggled in last week’s loss against the Cardinals (20 yards on 10 carries), but he’s been one of the better running backs in the country (692 yards on 105 carries and seven TDs). If I were head coach Marcus Freeman, I’d be running the ball with Estime until USC proves they can stop the run.
Along those same lines, it will be interesting to see which offense can sustain drives, as the Trojans’ defense allows opponents to convert 38.9% of third downs, while the Fighting Irish’s defense allows 39.1% conversion on third down. Now granted, those numbers have gone up over the last few games for both squads, but things should even out with the threat of inclement weather.
Saturday night’s game will go a long way in seeing where the Trojans ultimately end up, as they still have a shot at the CFP. Caleb Williams has been as advertised, along with the playmakers at the skill positions, who will get a couple of big plays on this Irish defense. However, Notre Dame has a ton to play for as well. The last time we saw the Fighting Irish at home, they lost in a heartbreaker to the Buckeyes.
It’s hard to pick a side in this game because the quarterbacks are excellent. Therefore, I’m rolling with the under 60 on the total. This season, the over is only 1-3 when the line is between 50-60 points for Notre Dame. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 when USC plays, as all their totals have been 62 points or more.
The trends say to take the over, but Notre Dame only allows 15.86 points per game, which has to count for something.
Best Bet
Under 60 points
