WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bills vs. Giants
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-125) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
- In this week’s contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets.
- After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has seen a big uptick this season, currently sitting at 114.0 per game.
- Stefon Diggs’s 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 65.9.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a heavy 15.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are predicted by the projections to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- Stefon Diggs’s 2.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a a significant regression in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 4.1% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
