Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 257.5 (-110) after it opened @ 251.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 136.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
- Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 79th percentile among QBs.
- With an exceptional total of 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Trevor Lawrence places among the top quarterbacks in football this year.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (275.0 per game) against the Colts defense this year.
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
