WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 70.2% Route% this year marks a a material growth in his air attack utilization over last year’s 32.0% rate.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 71.9% to 77.1%.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to pass on 55.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
- The Titans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 27.0 figure.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 5.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents a an impressive decrease in his receiving skills over last year’s 9.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
