NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 5

We all had a fun time watching Taylor Swift pretend to care about football and Travis Kelce to promote her new concert movie. But that was September, and this is October. It’s time to be serious. And with my 4-0 Survivor streak on the line, that means it’s time to pick against my horrific Panthers team.

Detroit Lions

-7 vs. Panthers

I desperately wanted to continue my Panthers Survivor picks bit. But Jared Goff played his 17th road game since his trade to the Lions last Sunday and subsequently popped in my projection system as having by far the most extreme home/road splits among tenured current starters. Goff is a near-neutral 9-10 in Detroit with 2.1 touchdowns and 18.8 fantasy points per game since 2021. And he’s just 6-10-1 on the road with 0.9 touchdowns and 12.0 fantasy points per game. And it makes perfect sense. The Rams made Goff the No. 1 draft pick because of his All-American bleached blonde hair, tanned skin, and California college pedigree. But at his core, Goff is a blue-collar, fifth-round draft pick. I didn’t look it up to confirm, but I can only assume Goff worked two jobs while he quarterbacked his state champion Midwest high school team since his dad lost his automotive assembly line job to outsourcing. America used to make things, you know? And that difficult upbringing instilled a toughness to help Goff overcome his Day 3 draft status and all the doubt from his Nepo Baby former coach Sean McVay. Expect Goff and his fellow blue-collar skill players David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta to rack up four touchdowns on Sunday, blow out my hapless Panthers, and put their down-but-never-out Detroit fanbase on their backs. And after those Dan Campbell disciples take care of business, then maybe the trust-fund first-rounders Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams can play a few snaps.

Miami Dolphins

-9.5 vs. Giants

Stephen A. Smith would likely be less quick to judge Tyreek Hill for his post-football career goals if he had been more than 3 years old at the end of the 1960s. According to the scholarly journal Cosmopolitan, that decade’s free-love sensibilities are back and updated in ethical non-monogamy. As a consenting adult, Hill can stay true to his partner in an adult profession. And he can stay true to the 2023 Dolphins even as he plans to go deep well after he retires from football. The Bills were the more physical team last Sunday, but the veteran receiver is clearly eager to get physical. I expect Hill and the Dolphins to rebound from their unsuccessful Sunday hookup and smash the Giants in Miami this weekend.

New York Jets

+3 at Broncos

What the Week 5 Revenge Game rankings lack in quantity they make up for in quality:

1. Nathaniel Hackett, Jets at Broncos

New Broncos coach Sean Payton told USA Today reporter Jarrett Bell that his predecessor Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” in 2022. The tenured former Saints coach would certainly know. He witnessed his defensive coordinators allow a top-five point total four different times. A 43-year NFL lifer, Hackett seemed less bothered by the criticism than one would assume. But as a fellow too-white bald man, I will be angry for him. Payton and Bill Belichick were geniuses for exactly as long as they had Drew Brees and Tom Brady as their quarterbacks. This is simply another of countless examples of the full-head-of-hair halo effect bias. If you think Hackett is dumb, then let me ask: are you getting paid $80,000 per week to not coach the Broncos for the next three years? I didn’t think so.

2. Billy Turner, Jets at Broncos

Lest we think Hackett was the only aggrieved former Broncos party, Billy Turner called Payton a “f-ing bum” in a social media post, opining that the new Denver coach “started training camp and is trying to soften the blow after realizing what he’s in for this season.” The Broncos lost 70-20 to the Dolphins in Week 3 and rank below my terrible Panthers in DVOA, so I’ll give that point to Turner. Unrelated, Turner compared switching from left to right tackle to learning to wipe one’s ass left-handed. Bums and asses? Turner sure seems to like to talk about butts! He should go on Tyreek Hill’s podcast.

3. DJ Chark, Panthers at Lions

If he thought DJ Chark missed too many games, then Dan Campbell must be excited for first-round draft pick Jameson Williams to potentially catch his second career pass in his 22nd possible start with the team this Sunday.

4. Arthur Maulet, Ravens at Steelers

Arthur Maulet uncircled the Week 5 Steelers game on his calendar, calling the matchup “nothing special” and insisting his former Steelers are “just in the way of what we need to do.” That quote demonstrates the wisdom the veteran has gained in his seven professional seasons. He wouldn’t want to make the football gods any angrier with the Ravens secondary than they already are. The team has led the league in defensive back adjusted games lost for approximately 27 straight seasons. And with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, Damarion Williams, Daryl Worley and Jalyn Armour-Davis already injured, Maulet is a tweaked ankle away from an Ed Reed activation at 45 years old.

When the Jets beat the Broncos by three touchdowns Sunday, Hackett should tell his sideline reporter that he would have won more in Denver if he had a more talented quarterback like Zach Wilson.

Atlanta Falcons

-3.5 vs. Texans

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith gave his third-round sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder a public vote of confidence on Monday. For any other team, that would signal that it’s time to pick Taylor Heinicke up off fantasy waivers. But Smith is a fantasy troll savant, so I see the game going something like…

• Ridder earns the official start at quarterback but plays just three snaps, all lined up out wide
• Tyler Allgeier takes 62 snaps as a wild cat quarterback and rushes for 186 yards and two touchdowns
• Bijan Robinson catches two of his five screen targets, gains 17 yards, and proves extremely proficient as a lead-blocking fullback
• Allgeier throws two touchdown passes to Kyle Pitts
• The Falcons defense double-covers Nico Collins and Tank Dell every play, funnels a combined 21 targets, 189 yards, and three touchdowns to Robert Woods and Devin Singletary, and snags their second C.J. Stroud interception on a final fourth-quarter drive to secure the 28-24 win

Standard stuff, really. Take the Falcons.

Arizona Cardinals

+7.5 vs. Bengals

Joe Burrow declared his 1-3 Bengals’ Week 5 matchup with the Cardinals a must-win, and league history backs him up. Just 11 of the 161 1-4 teams have made the playoffs since 1990. But here’s the problem. The Cardinals are 1-3, as well. And they have been much, much better than the Bengals this year. The Cardinals have been better by their -14 versus -45 point differential. They have been better by their -0.4% versus -22.6% team DVOA. And Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been better by his 22.4% versus -21.2% passing DVOA. Hell, Dobbs has been better than Patrick Mahomes (21.6%), Justin Herbert (20.2%), Lamar Jackson (11.3%), and Trevor Lawrence (8.2%). He might be Tom Brady to Kyler Murray’s Drew Bledsoe. That’s why I call him Jo Cool. Cardinals by 3.

Scott’s Pick: Detroit Lions
Scott’s Record: 4-0