WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
- With an exceptional 69.6% Route Participation Rate (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the TEs with the most usage in the league.
- In this week’s game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.8 targets.
- The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- With a remarkable 94.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (95th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- With a lackluster 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (25th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the league in space.
- This year, the daunting Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a measly 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-best rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
