TNF Plays: Best Props for Thursday Night Football, Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season starts with the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears Thursday night. The Bears are one of two remaining winless teams in the league, while Washington is coming off an overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 5 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.

Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for This week’s Thursday matchup. 

Week 5 Player Props

Brian Robinson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards

(-110, BetMGM)

It’s time to recognize that Brian Robinson is one the best running backs in the NFL. Per our FTN Utilization Report, Robinson ranks third in the NFL in team rushing attempts, carrying 73.4% of the Commanders ground opportunities this season. This includes last week’s game against the Eagles, who rank first in rush defense DVOA per Aaron Schatz. 

Antonio Gibson’s role has been minimized, as new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has started to utilize Robinson in the receiving game. Through four games Robinson has five receptions after totaling nine receptions through 12 games last season. Backup running back Chris Rodriguez was still limited in practice Tuesday after missing last week’s game with an illness. 

Washington is a 5.5-point favorite and facing a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. We project Robinson for 69.3 yards, which should be his floor behind a Commanders offensive line that ranks comfortably inside the top in run-blocking efficiency. 

Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I love the Commanders in this home matchup, bringing me to my second over for Washington’s offense. 

Terry McLaurin battled a turf toe issue that lingered from the preseason, producing minimal stat lines for the first two games of the season. McLaurin posted just seven receptions and 85 total yards in those first two matchups, despite the Commanders winning both contests. Over the past two weeks, McLaurin has looked completely healthy and has posted 14 receptions on 16 targets. He now faces a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in total DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA, including 26th against opposing WR1s. 

This number is too low for the Commanders top wideout, who has excelled in home matchups when Washington is favored. Per our FTN Splits Tool, McLaurin has crested 70 receiving yards in those exact situations. 

We project McLaurin for exactly 70 receiving yards, equating to a solid 8% edge per our FTNBets model. I believe in Washington on a short week against a struggling Bears defense and will back two overs for the Commanders key offensive players.