Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (+104) after it opened @ 59.5 (-119).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Terry McLaurin is expected by the projections to place in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.1 targets.
Terry McLaurin’s 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 67.4% mark.

Cons

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Terry McLaurin has notched far fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin’s 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 58.6.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards