Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Austin Hooper from EV Insight

Austin HooperReceiving Yards

Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+114/-146).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-146) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
As it relates to air yards, Austin Hooper grades out in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 26.0 per game.
Austin Hooper’s 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for tight ends.
Austin Hooper has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a terrific 76.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
The Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (62%) versus TEs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.18 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards