NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel to garner 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 57.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
- Deebo Samuel’s pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, totaling 9.35 yards-per-target vs a mere 7.70 mark last year.
Cons
- The 49ers are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Deebo Samuel to be a less important option in his team’s passing game this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (31.3% in games he has played).
- The Cardinals pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
