Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to notch 20.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has earned 80.0% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has picked up 90.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (100th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding 5.44 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards