MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-111/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-111) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- DeAndre Hopkins has totaled a monstrous 111.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 15th percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 134.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
