MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Patriots vs. Eagles
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-148/+112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-148) after it opened @ 32.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 47.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
- D’Andre Swift’s ground effectiveness (5.43 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (91st percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The New England Patriots defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, allowing just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
- The New England Patriots safeties project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards
40
Rushing Yards
