College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-111/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-115) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
- Juwan Johnson has run a route on 68.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
