Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+100) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accrue 8.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Olave has posted a colossal 114.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among WRs.
Chris Olave’s 69.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wideouts.

Cons

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Chris Olave has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a mere 60.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile among wide receivers

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards