NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+100) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accrue 8.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has posted a colossal 114.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among WRs.
- Chris Olave’s 69.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wideouts.
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- Chris Olave has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a mere 60.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
