Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-111/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-115) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
Juwan Johnson has run a route on 68.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has been among the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards