Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 9/6)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Seattle Mariners @ Cincinnati Reds

Mariners -170 @ Reds +142 – Total 9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We’re headed back to the well this Wednesday. If you read Tuesday’s writeup you know exactly what we’re betting — as the Reds send another inexperienced arm out against this slugging Mariners offense.

Seattle has the second-best wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at 137 (37% above league average). The M’s are tied for the most home runs over that stretch with 39, rank second in wOBA, and top-four in runs, OBP and slugging percentage. The Mariners do a great job of lifting the ball, as they have one of the highest fly ball percentages and one of the lowest ground ball percentages in the Majors. Their 10.1% barrel percentage ranks third-best in baseball. Seattle has scored the seventh-most runs per game on the road this season at 4.99.

Lyon Richardson is on the bump for Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park — the 23-year-old will have to deal with some great hitting conditions along with facing this tough Seattle lineup led by Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández. The righty has only thrown 22 innings above AA ball, but the Reds are still short on arms. Like Phillips Tuesday, Richardson has displayed excellent strikeout stuff in the minors. His numbers are solid, but he’s had issues with control and clearly needs more time at the minor league level. Richardson posted a 4.27 ERA in four seasons across all minor league levels. This will be the 23-year-old’s fourth major league start – as he’s allowed nine runs in his first 12 innings in the Show. He’s walked more hitters than he’s struck outs (9/11 K/BB) with a 6.75 ERA, 7.76 FIP and 6.91 SIERA in the small sample. The hard throwing righty has trouble missing bats at the major league level with a single-digit swinging-strike percentage. The rookie has also been hit hard with a 16.7% barrel percentage in his first three outings. Projection systems don’t see Phillips having much success at the Major League level this season, as Steamer projects the righty for a 4.44 ERA and 4.68 FIP while The Bat has him for 5.08 ERA and 5.00 FIP.

The Reds bullpen sits in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA but their FIP ranks ninth-worst, xFIP second-worst, and SIERA is the fourth-worst in the league. Over the last 14 days they’ve posted a 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 5.04 SIERA.

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