NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 258.5 (-110) after it opened @ 256.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 37.6 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.
- Jared Goff has been among the leading QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 257.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
