Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
