College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Devin Singletary has averaged 55.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (77th percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (40.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.2% in games he has played).
- The New England Patriots defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
